Magellan Polling President predicts a Tancredo Win

“Tom Tancredo will become Colorado's next governor,” predicted David Flaherty, president and CEO of Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, a Louisville, CO, pollster that works for Republicans around the country. In a phone interview, Flaherty said polls that show John Hickenlooper winning the gubernatorial race are using demographics and turnout numbers that incorrectly skew their results in favor of Democrats.

"I do believe that Tom Tancredo is going to win," Flaherty declared. In recent polls, Tancredo has about 73% of Republican voters. Flaherty thinks Tancredo will wind up with over 80% of Republicans. It will be in the low 80s, he said.

Tancredo is benefiting from Dan Maes' decision to stay in the race, Flaherty said. Because Maes stayed in the race, Hickenlooper and the Democrats figured that Tancredo and Maes would split the conservatives' and unaffiliated voters' and that they didn't have anything to worry about. If Maes had dropped out, as Tancredo and Republican leaders asked him to, the Democrats would have attacked Tancredo, he said.

Now that Tancredo is poised to win, Flaherty said, it's too late for the Democrats to attack Tancredo.

Ironically, the bitter Maes has stayed in the race to, I think, make sure that Tancredo loses. Now it appears that he's helping Tancredo win. Now, that would be poetic justice.

Maes will probably get 6% to 7% of all votes, but it's hard to predict, Flaherty said. Recent polls show Maes getting from 5% to 10% of all votes.     – More -